After Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns” (2001)

Accelerating Returns Trendlines

Kurzweil argued that information technologies improve exponentially, and that progress speeds up as each new paradigm takes over from the last. Here are 31 curves an investor can underwrite, each plotted on a log scale so the doubling time reads straight off the line.

Compare all curvesAbout the data

  1. Technology compounds faster than its markets. Transistors per chip double every 2 years. Chip-industry revenue takes about 12. Buyers keep most of the gain.
  2. Adoption keeps getting faster. ChatGPT and Starlink doubled in under a year. Internet users took about a year and a half; smartphones, closer to two.
  3. Kurzweil’s 2023 call missed. He said $1,000 would buy a human brain’s worth of compute by 2023. Consumer FP32 hardware fell about 400× short.

How Fast Each Curve Compounds

Years for a 10× change, from a log-linear fit over each series’ fit window. Shorter bars compound faster. Select a row to jump to its chart.

Technology cost & performanceMarket or adoption↑ rising · ↓ falling price